Macro and Government Bond Commentary: Yields continue lower with crude oil, positioning ahead of FY25 RBI surplus transfer announcement next week • The 10Y benchmark (6.79 GS 2034) opened little changed at 6.29% in absence of fresh triggers but edged higher in the morning session. This upside in yields did not sustain, with demand seen on a fall in crude oil prices. This was likely on reports that the US and Iran were getting closer to a deal on the country’s nuclear program. In addition, markets now closely watch the RBI surplus announcement for FY25 (likely on 23rd May as the board meets). The positioning for heavy RBI surplus transfer appears to have begun, with optimism around more aggressive easing policy rates also aiding. The 10Y point closed trade at 6.27% vs 6.29% prev.
