A quick review of macros since the June MPC meeting: India Q4 GVA growth came in at 6.77% vs 6.5% previous – aided by higher positive contribution to growth from manufacturing as well as construction activity. The exports contribute ~ 21.2% to India’s GDP. The US president Donald Trump announced India will face a 25% tariff starting August 1st, along with penalties for energy and arms purchases from Russia. We expect the RBI to adopt a wait & watch approach, to see the impact of tariffs on our economy in the current meeting, before taking the next steps if any.
